申万宏观点评7月金融数据：资金回表“加速度”，M2同比回升主因资本市场活跃

Core Insights - The core viewpoint is that the year-on-year increase in M2 is primarily driven by the active capital market, which has accelerated the return of funds to the banking system, leading to a record high in non-bank deposits [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of July 2025, the credit balance decreased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year to 6.9%, while the social financing stock increased by 0.1 percentage points to 9.0%, and M2 rose by 0.5 percentage points to 8.8% [5]. - The non-bank deposits increased by 21,400 billion, marking the highest level for the same period since 2015, with a year-on-year increase of 13,900 billion [2][34]. Group 2: Loan and Credit Trends - Resident loans saw a significant decline, decreasing by 4,893 billion, which is a year-on-year reduction of 2,793 billion, reflecting a cautious attitude towards debt amid an unstable job market [10][23]. - Corporate credit showed a mixed trend, with short-term loans and bill financing performing well, while medium- to long-term loans remained weak, indicating a cautious stance on long-term investments [15][20]. Group 3: Social Financing and Government Bonds - The new social financing scale continued to show a year-on-year increase, primarily due to net financing from government bonds, with a total increase of 5.1 trillion from January to July 2025 [20][29]. - Government bond issuance in July amounted to 12,440 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5,559 billion, contributing significantly to the overall social financing growth [29][34]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Policies - The introduction of loan interest subsidy policies aims to lower the comprehensive financing costs and stimulate credit growth, with a subsidy rate of 1 percentage point for consumer loans and service industry loans [22]. - The cautious approach of enterprises towards long-term investments is reflected in the decline of medium- to long-term loans, with the PPI dropping to -3.6% and the PMI production expectation index decreasing to 52.6 [15][20].