金晟富：8.16黄金震荡承压还看延续！下周黄金趋势分析参考

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing a cautious phase influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic factors, with gold prices fluctuating between $3330 and $3350, while the outlook remains bullish due to increasing demand and macroeconomic uncertainties [1][2]. Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The second half of the year is expected to see heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2]. - Key supporting factors for gold's bullish outlook include tariff increases, global economic slowdown, easing U.S. monetary policy, and a persistently weak dollar [2]. - Recent economic data has shown mixed signals, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although inflation data has tempered these expectations [2]. Market Analysis - The recent U.S.-Russia summit yielded no concrete agreements, leading to limited volatility in gold prices, which remained within a narrow range [3]. - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for gold, with the market currently in a downward C-wave and indicators suggesting increased selling pressure [3][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are identified at $3350-$3353, while key support is at $3330, with further potential declines if this level is breached [5]. Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategies include short positions on rebounds near $3348-$3350 and long positions on pullbacks near $3310-$3315, with strict stop-loss measures recommended [5].