行业透视 | 京沪深刚需和豪宅新挂牌房源占比稳增

Core Viewpoint - The high-end real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is expected to experience a steady decline in heat, with increasing supply and changing buyer sentiment impacting market dynamics [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends - In July 2025, the second-hand housing market transaction volume in 30 key cities decreased by 14% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum [1]. - The new listing volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou showed a seasonal decline in July, with only Shanghai remaining flat compared to the previous month [1][7]. - The overall new listing volume in July for Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen was significantly higher than the same period last year, with year-on-year increases exceeding 20% [1]. Group 2: Listing Characteristics - The new listings in the mid-price segment (100-500 million yuan) have decreased, while the lower and higher price segments (below 300 million yuan and above 600 million yuan) have seen an increase in listing proportions [5][6]. - In Beijing, the listing proportion for the 300-500 million yuan segment dropped by 0.98 percentage points, while the lower segment (below 300 million yuan) and the higher segment (above 3000 million yuan) increased by 0.42 and 0.63 percentage points, respectively [5]. - In Hangzhou, the high-end property listings (above 600 million yuan) have structurally increased, while lower price segment listings have decreased [6]. Group 3: Area Segment Analysis - The most significant increases in listing proportions for small-sized properties were observed in Beijing (below 70 square meters), Shanghai (50-90 square meters), and Shenzhen (50-70 square meters) [6]. - In contrast, larger property segments (above 140 square meters) have shown a steady increase in listing proportions across the three cities [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market is characterized by a "K-shaped" differentiation, where demand for affordable small units and luxury properties remains strong, while mid-range improvement properties face hesitance from owners [7]. - The high-end market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is likely to see a steady decline in heat due to increased supply and competition from new high-quality developments [7].