俄罗斯发布预警，欧盟将对“刺头”下手，欧洲的民主容不下清醒派

Group 1: Core Issues between Orbán and the EU - The EU is allegedly planning a "regime change" targeting Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections, as revealed by Russian intelligence [1] - Orbán's strong opposition to Ukraine's EU membership is a significant source of tension, criticizing Ukraine's legal and anti-corruption status as inadequate [3] - Hungary maintains a good relationship with Russia, opposing EU sanctions and continuing to import natural gas from Russia, which has caused dissatisfaction among EU leaders [3] Group 2: Orbán's Independent Stance - Hungary is the only EU member state that has refused to provide military support to Ukraine, despite the EU's military aid exceeding €160 billion [4] - Orbán has publicly stated that "Russia has won" and opposes the militarization of Europe, rejecting the EU's plans to support Ukraine through the "European Peace Fund" [4] - Orbán has used his veto power to freeze parts of the EU budget approval, demonstrating his resistance to EU fiscal policies [4] Group 3: EU's Response and Orbán's Popularity - The EU may consider economic sanctions against Hungary, such as freezing EU subsidies or suspending Hungary's voting rights, but these measures face procedural complexities [7] - Orbán has maintained a support rate of over 45% among the Hungarian populace, who generally view EU interference as a greater threat than Russia [7] - A significant portion of the Hungarian public, nearly 60%, perceives EU meddling as more alarming than the threat posed by Russia [7] Group 4: Russia's Strategic Intentions - The timing of the Russian intelligence leak is strategic, aimed at showing support for Orbán while testing the EU's internal reactions [11] - If any EU member openly supports the idea of replacing Orbán, it could damage the EU's democratic image; silence from members would allow Russia to further its "divide and conquer" strategy [11] - A fragmented EU is more favorable for Russia, as it can be more easily manipulated compared to a united bloc [11]