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刘世锦:要减少消费不足的结构性偏差 形成稳增长促转型的新动能
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao·2025-08-16 06:24

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption shortfall in China is identified as a structural deviation that needs to be addressed through investment policies and funding to stimulate consumption and create new momentum for stable growth and transformation [2][5]. Group 1: Consumption Shortfall - The consumption shortfall is primarily due to insufficient service consumption, particularly in education, healthcare, affordable housing, social security, and elderly care [2]. - The largest gap in consumption is found among rural residents, especially among nearly 300 million migrant workers and 200 million rural-to-urban migrants [2]. - The structural issue of urban-rural duality must be addressed through reforms focused on human-centered urbanization and equal development rights [2]. Group 2: Investment and Policy Recommendations - The concept of "terminal demand" is introduced, which combines consumption with non-productive investment related to people's livelihoods, such as real estate and infrastructure [2]. - There is a need to shift the focus of stimulus policies towards enhancing consumption, with a target to raise the consumption share of GDP to a reasonable level as a hard task for stable growth [5][6]. Group 3: Structural Reforms - Three key areas for structural reform are proposed to effectively boost consumption: 1. Addressing housing shortages for new urban residents, particularly migrant workers, through the acquisition of unsold housing and the construction of new affordable housing [7]. 2. Reforming the rural residents' pension insurance system to cover a larger population and improve pension income, aiming for a monthly pension of 1,000 yuan within five years [8]. 3. Promoting the smooth flow of production factors between urban and rural areas to drive a second wave of urbanization, targeting a 75% urbanization rate and doubling the middle-income group within a decade [9].