“投资者可能忽视了风险”！美国重磅数据出炉，50个基点降息或成泡影

Group 1 - The US retail sales data for July showed a stable growth, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, indicating a positive consumer spending trend despite concerns over tariffs and rising import prices [1][2] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model updated the third-quarter GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, with an upward revision of personal consumption expenditure growth from 2.0% to 2.2% for the July to September period [2] - The increase in retail sales alleviated concerns about economic stagnation following three months of weak employment data, although the impact of tariffs on prices remains a concern for future monetary policy decisions [2][3] Group 2 - The July import price index rose by 0.4%, reversing a 0.1% decline in June, indicating that tariffs are exerting cost pressure on imported goods [2] - The consumer confidence index dropped for the first time since April, with the University of Michigan's index falling from 61.7 to 58.6, reflecting concerns over rising inflation [2] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, although there are concerns that tariffs have not yet fully impacted consumer prices [3]