8月15日债市大反弹，与股市齐涨，股债双收行情开启

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has staged a remarkable comeback alongside the stock market, with significant movements in both markets driven by central bank liquidity measures and differentiated actions by institutional investors [3][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 15, the bond market experienced a strong rally, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping below 1.72% and the 30-year government bond futures rebounding sharply after four consecutive declines [5]. - The credit bond market also showed strength, with bank bonds and industrial bonds leading the way. For instance, the "25中行永续债 01" saw its trading premium rise to 2 basis points [5]. - Institutional investors displayed varied behaviors, with funds and brokerages selling off bonds while banks and insurance companies took the opportunity to buy [6]. Group 2: Central Bank Actions - On August 8, the central bank unexpectedly conducted a 700 billion yuan reverse repo operation, injecting 300 billion yuan of liquidity into the market, which significantly benefited the bond market [5][6]. - The ample liquidity changed the previously inverse relationship between the stock and bond markets, allowing both to thrive simultaneously [6]. Group 3: Policy Changes and Market Reactions - A new 6% value-added tax on newly issued government bonds starting August 8 has pressured funds to sell bonds to mitigate losses, while larger institutions capitalized on the opportunity to purchase older bonds that remain tax-exempt [6][7]. - The market showed a preference for older bonds over newly issued ones, as evidenced by the lower subscription rates for new bonds compared to the rising premiums for existing bonds [7]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Some public funds have been actively positioning themselves in 30-year ultra-long government bonds, ostensibly to raise current bond prices while hedging risks through government bond futures [13]. - For retail investors, mid-to-short-term credit bonds, particularly AA-rated industrial bonds, are viewed as a more stable investment choice due to their historically low credit spreads attracting significant institutional interest [13].