Bank of America(US:BAC) 智通财经网·2025-08-16 07:09Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Federal Reserve may adjust its U.S. Treasury bond portfolio, potentially purchasing nearly $2 trillion in short-term bonds over the next two years, which could absorb the entire issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds during that period [1][4] - Bank of America strategists expect the Fed to align its asset portfolio with its liabilities to mitigate interest rate risk and negative asset conditions, while also shortening the maturity of its liabilities [1][4] - The Fed's potential actions would ensure strong demand for short-term government bonds, alleviating concerns about market liquidity being depleted due to large-scale U.S. Treasury bond issuance [4] Group 2 - Bank of America strategists estimate that the supply of Treasury bills will reach $825 billion in fiscal year 2026 and $1.067 trillion in fiscal year 2027, assuming the Treasury maintains its bond auction size until October 2026 [3] - Since the U.S. Congress raised the debt ceiling last month, the Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term government bonds to replenish its cash reserves, leading to a liquidity drain from the financial system [3] - The Fed's total net income remains negative due to interest payments on bank reserves and other liabilities exceeding the income from its bond holdings, creating additional cost pressures [4] Group 3 - The Dallas Fed's research report analyzed three asset allocation strategies, concluding that maturity matching helps reduce yield volatility, while a diversified portfolio is more effective in mitigating concentration risk [5] - The Fed has several options to quickly increase its holdings of Treasury bills, including reinvesting mortgage-backed securities and increasing reserve balances, with potential monthly purchases ranging from $10 billion to $60 billion [5] - Analysts expect the Fed to adjust its reinvestment strategy immediately after concluding its balance sheet reduction plan, likely by December 2025 [5]