7月消费环比回落，扩内需组合拳将持续发力

Economic Overview - In July, the economy continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand, but overall remained stable [2] - Retail sales in July reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year, but down 0.14% month-on-month [2][4] - From January to July, total retail sales amounted to 284,238 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8% [2] Consumption Trends - Despite weak domestic demand, there are still consumption highlights, particularly in the "trade-in" related sectors, where retail sales of home appliances and communication devices grew over 10%, with some categories even reaching 20% [2] - The growth rate of retail sales in July was 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, with food and beverage income also showing a marginal decline [4][5] - Service consumption performed relatively well, with service retail sales growing by 5.2% year-on-year from January to July, driven by tourism and diverse service offerings [6] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in July decreased by 0.63% month-on-month, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% from January to July [2][7] - The decline in investment growth reflects short-term weather disturbances and mid-term factors such as reduced real estate projects and equipment renewal cycles [7] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.2%, down 1.4 percentage points from previous values, indicating a slowdown in construction activities [7] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 12% in July, and new housing sales area also decreased by 4% [5][8] - The credit financing growth rate for real estate companies fell sharply to -15.8%, the lowest in two years, indicating a significant contraction in the sector [8] - The ongoing contraction in the real estate market suggests that the decline in investment growth may further widen as the market has not yet bottomed out after three years of shrinkage [8]