美联储官员表态不一：9月降息预期升温待数据定夺

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a rate cut in September is rising, with the market closely monitoring the dynamics of Federal Reserve officials and upcoming data [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Perspectives - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee expressed hesitation about rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties, emphasizing the need for more convincing data before making decisions [1] - Goolsbee previously suggested a "golden path" for gradual rate cuts, contingent on stable labor markets and moderate inflation [1] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supports the possibility of easing policies as early as next month, citing a weak labor market and high inflation rates above the Fed's target [1] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Reactions - July CPI aligned with market expectations, but core CPI rose slightly to 3.1%, exceeding Wall Street forecasts [1] - PPI unexpectedly recorded a 0.9% month-over-month increase, marking the largest rise in nearly three years, raising concerns about inflation trends [1] - The market anticipates the release of key employment and inflation data before the Fed's meeting on September 16-17, with experts predicting potential rate cuts [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The Fed's upcoming meeting will be crucial in determining whether to implement the first rate cut of the year, with market sentiment leaning towards a September cut and possibly more before the end of the year [1] - Futures markets are optimistic about rate cuts, with traders pricing in a near certainty of a September cut and a potential third cut by year-end [1]