白银价格预测：强劲PPI数据推动美元走强，银价下滑

Core Insights - The silver price has declined to $38.00, ending a two-day rebound, influenced by a stronger US dollar [1] - July's Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows a significant rise in inflation, with both overall and core PPI figures exceeding expectations [2][4] Market Analysis - Silver is consolidating between resistance at $38.50 and support at $37.50, with momentum shifting to neutral [3] - On Thursday, silver prices fell nearly 1.30%, trading close to $38.00, as the stronger-than-expected PPI and stable initial jobless claims data supported the dollar [3] - The dollar index has rebounded above the psychological level of 98.00 after a two-week low, prompting traders to reassess the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook [3] Inflation Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month in July, marking the largest monthly gain since June 2022, significantly above the expected 0.2% [4] - The year-on-year growth rate of PPI reached 3.3%, surpassing the anticipated 2.5% and accelerating from the previous 2.4% [4] Technical Analysis - On the 4-hour chart, silver is trading between resistance at $38.75 and support at $37.55, with bearish pressure emerging near recent highs [7] - The price has retreated to the convergence of the 50-day moving average at $38.01 and the 100-day moving average at $37.96, which is a critical level [7] - If silver continues to fall below this area, it may expose the lower boundary of the range, while a rebound could maintain the consolidation momentum [7] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 45, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish state, while the MACD shows signs of flattening after a bullish crossover, suggesting potential waning upward momentum [7]