看对“4月大反弹”的高盛交易员：“喊顶”很难，预计美股仍将缓慢上涨

Group 1: Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs' top trader Josh Schiffrin believes that despite some bubbles in certain sectors, the upward trend of the U.S. stock market is not over [1] - Schiffrin advises investors to follow the slow upward trend of the market while considering hedging or "insurance" measures due to high valuations and low volatility [1][7] - He emphasizes that predicting market tops is very difficult and suggests waiting for a confirmed downturn before taking action [1][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy - Schiffrin asserts that a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is almost certain, while the likelihood of a 50 basis point cut is very low [2] - He notes that the current federal funds rate is closer to the Fed's perceived "neutral rate" compared to last year, and inflation risks remain due to tariffs and survey-based inflation expectations [2] Group 3: Bond Market - Schiffrin has shifted his strategy to favoring 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds, predicting that the average federal funds rate over the next five years will be below 3% [3] - He finds 5-year Treasuries attractive in the 3.75% to 4% yield range and believes that short-term Treasuries can effectively hedge risk assets if the economy weakens [3] Group 4: Japanese Central Bank - Schiffrin believes that the market has significantly underestimated the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising rates in October [4] - He argues that current global risk markets are high, trade uncertainties have decreased, and Japan's real interest rates are deeply negative, creating a "window" for the BOJ to act [4] Group 5: U.S. Dollar Outlook - Schiffrin continues to view the U.S. dollar as being on a path of structural depreciation, despite recent stagnation [5] - He cites the need for the U.S. to finance a large fiscal deficit, high valuations of dollar assets, and an expected narrowing of interest rate differentials with other economies as reasons for his outlook [5] Group 6: Stock Market Sentiment - Schiffrin expresses cautious optimism regarding the U.S. stock market, driven by good economic performance, reduced trade policy uncertainty, and ongoing enthusiasm for AI [6][7] - He warns of high overall valuations and potential bubbles in some market areas, suggesting that purchasing insurance is reasonable given the current low implied volatility [7]