为何“特朗普关税”尚未拉高美国通胀？这个解释被越来越多人认同

Core Insights - Despite the highest tariff barriers in nearly a century, inflation has not surged as economists feared, attributed to widespread exemptions and changes in trade patterns that have kept effective tariff rates lower than official figures [1][2] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - Barclays' analysis shows that the average effective tariff rate in May was approximately 9%, significantly lower than the previously estimated 12% [1] - In June, only 48% of U.S. imports were actually subject to tariffs due to numerous exemptions, including critical goods like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2] - The overall effective tariff rate has been reduced due to these exemptions, which has mitigated the expected inflationary pressures [2] Group 2: Importer Behavior and Inventory Adjustments - Importers have shifted to countries with lower tariffs or domestic suppliers, resulting in a lower actual tariff rate than the headline averages [3] - Some importers, like those in the used car business, have stockpiled inventory before tariffs took effect, leading to a temporary decline in import volumes [3] - Analysts warn that the current low effective tariff rates may not be sustainable, with predictions of an increase to around 15% as loopholes are closed [3] Group 3: Future Price Increases and Cost Pass-Through - The White House plans to suspend the "minimum exemption" rule, which previously allowed duty-free entry for packages valued under $800 [4] - Potential future tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors could lead to greater economic impacts [5] - Companies are beginning to pass increased costs onto consumers, with some planning price hikes in response to clearer tariff outlooks [5]