花旗银行德克·威勒：欧洲商业周期转向 超配美股 看跌美元

Core Viewpoint - The conference highlighted investment strategies for the second half of the year, focusing on various asset classes including stocks, bonds, credit, foreign exchange, and commodities [1] Asset Allocation Summary - The company recommends an overweight position in stocks, particularly in the U.S. and somewhat in Europe, while underweighting UK stocks. It holds a neutral stance on government bonds, overweighting emerging market bonds and underweighting Japanese government bonds. Additionally, it is underweight in investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S., maintains a neutral view on commodities, and advocates shorting the dollar while going long on the euro and some emerging market currencies [3][4] Stock Market Analysis - The "American exceptionalism" narrative has returned, driven by a resurgence in AI trading, with the tech sector leading the U.S. market. Capital expenditures in the U.S. have significantly contributed to GDP, surpassing consumer spending, a rare occurrence. Current capital expenditure guidance remains strong, indicating potential for further U.S. stock market gains [3][4] European Market Insights - Europe is viewed as a quality diversification option due to a turning business cycle and the fact that European investors are the largest holders of U.S. stocks. A shift towards domestic investments could boost European stock markets. Additionally, the company has upgraded its rating on Chinese stocks, citing China's significant AI asset base [4] Credit Market Positioning - The company is underweight in investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads, which could provide risk protection in case of disappointing U.S. economic data. A neutral stance on government bonds is maintained, influenced by potential Fed rate cuts and the need for an increase in the term premium of U.S. Treasuries [4][5] Emerging Market Bonds - The company holds an optimistic view on emerging market bonds, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, expecting better performance when the dollar weakens and U.S. Treasury yields remain stable. Conversely, it is underweight in Japanese government bonds due to the Bank of Japan's ongoing rate hikes [5] Foreign Exchange Outlook - The dollar faces structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness through the end of the year. This trend is anticipated to affect not only the euro but also high-yield emerging market currencies, which may benefit from carry trade opportunities [6] Commodity Market Strategy - The company maintains a neutral stance on all commodities but advocates a "buy on dips" strategy, particularly for gold, which is seen as a key asset for diversification away from the dollar. Silver is favored due to favorable market conditions that typically enhance its performance [7] Overall Market Sentiment - The company expresses a positive outlook on global stock markets, especially in the U.S. due to high exposure to AI, while adopting a cautious approach towards U.S. bonds and favoring emerging market bonds. The bearish view on the dollar remains consistent [7]