花旗银行德克・威勒：欧洲商业周期转向，超配美股，看跌美元

Group 1: Market Overview - The core viewpoint presented by Dirk Willer emphasizes a positive outlook on the U.S. stock market, driven by a resurgence in capital expenditures and AI-related investments [1][2] - Willer suggests an overweight position in U.S. stocks, particularly in the technology sector, while recommending underweight positions in UK stocks [1][2] - The analysis indicates that the current capital expenditure cycle in the U.S. is not yet over, with strong guidance for capital spending in the remaining months of the year and into next year [2] Group 2: Asset Allocation Strategy - Willer advocates for an overweight in emerging market bonds, particularly in Mexico, Brazil, and South Africa, while maintaining a neutral stance on commodities [4][6] - The strategy for government bonds is neutral, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which could influence the yield curve [3][6] - In the credit market, a cautious approach is recommended, with a preference for lower exposure to investment-grade credit in Europe and the U.S. due to narrow credit spreads [3] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Insights - The U.S. dollar is facing structural and cyclical bearish pressures, with expectations of continued weakness through the end of the year, particularly against the euro and high-yield emerging market currencies [5][6] - Willer maintains a neutral stance on all commodities but highlights a bullish outlook on gold due to central banks diversifying reserves away from the dollar [6] - Silver is favored as a long position, as it tends to perform well under current market conditions characterized by rising term premiums and a bullish stock market [6]