JD LOGISTICS(02618.HK)：EFFORTS TO ACQUIRE CUSTOMERS FOR SUPPLY CHAIN BUSINESS PAID OFF; WATCH SYNERGIES FROM INSTANT DELIVERY BUSINESS

Core Viewpoint - JD Logistics reported its 2Q25 earnings, showing a revenue increase of 17% YoY to Rmb51.56 billion and a non-IFRS net profit rise of 5% YoY to Rmb2.59 billion, aligning with expectations [1] Revenue Growth - The revenue from integrated supply chain customers increased by 26% YoY to Rmb26.9 billion, with JD Group's revenue rising 31% YoY to Rmb17.8 billion, driven by government subsidies and JD Food Delivery expansion [2] - Revenue from external integrated supply chain customers grew 18% YoY to Rmb9.1 billion, with the number of external customers increasing by 14% YoY to approximately 65,854, and average revenue per customer (ARPC) rising 4% YoY to about Rmb138,874 [2] Cost Analysis - The cost of revenue increased by 18% YoY in 2Q25, with employee benefit expenses rising 21% YoY, while gross profit margin fell by 1.3 percentage points YoY to 10.6% [3] - The firm employed over 660,000 in-house operational employees as of 1H25, an increase of about 180,000 compared to the end of 2024, indicating rising staff costs due to business expansion [3] Future Trends - The instant delivery business is expected to contribute incremental revenue, with the firm recruiting full-time riders for JD Food Delivery and launching integrated warehousing and delivery services [4] - The firm anticipates that food delivery riders will create synergies with the existing express delivery network, enhancing last-mile delivery efficiency and service flexibility [4] - Continued investments in internationalization and automation include launching the JoyExpress brand in Saudi Arabia and developing unmanned light-duty trucks [4] Financial Forecasts - The firm has revised its 2025 and 2026 non-IFRS net profit forecasts down by 2.7% and 5.8% to Rmb8,307 million and Rmb8,883 million, respectively [5] - The stock is currently trading at 10.2x 2025e and 9.4x 2026e non-IFRS P/E, with an OUTPERFORM rating and a target price of HK$18.50, implying a 32.5% upside [5]