Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that from 2018 to 2024, China National Freight's operating revenue is expected to grow significantly by 37%, while gross profit is projected to maintain around 5.5 billion yuan, and operating profit is expected to see a moderate increase of 14% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The annualized growth rates for agency and related business revenue, gross profit, and operating profit are projected to be 6%, 7%, and 3% respectively [1] - For professional logistics, the annualized growth rates are also 6%, 5%, and 3% respectively, indicating a steady growth trend [1] - The e-commerce business is expected to see revenue and operating profit annualized growth rates of 28% and 5%, respectively, with rapid revenue growth likely linked to the development of cross-border e-commerce [1] Strategic Focus - China National Freight emphasizes a "control over cargo" strategy, enhancing the development of strategic and direct customers, and aims to convert market stock and scattered variables into controllable transport volume and channel increments, which is expected to lead to stable business growth in the future [1] Profit Sources - Nearly half of the company's operating profit comes from investment income, primarily contributed by Sinotrans DHL [1] - The company is also enhancing net profit through equity disposals and the issuance of REITs [1] Profit Forecast Adjustments - Considering the transfer of equity in Luokai International and the issuance of REITs, the forecast for 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders has been raised to 5.2 billion yuan from the previous estimate of 4.7 billion yuan [1] - Due to the downward pressure in the shipping and air freight industries, the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 net profit attributable to shareholders are set at 3.5 billion yuan for both years [1] - The company maintains a "buy" rating [1]
研报掘金丨天风证券:维持中国外运“买入”评级,主业平稳发展,资产处置增厚利润