Ge Long Hui·2025-08-16 19:12Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi has experienced significant volatility recently, with a 7.2% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating market uncertainty regarding its future performance [1]. Financial Performance Expectations - Xiaomi is set to announce its Q2 earnings on August 19, with net profit estimates ranging from 8.1 billion to 10.27 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.9% to 101.5% from 5.098 billion RMB [1]. - Revenue forecasts for Q2 are between 112.086 billion and 117.826 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26.1% to 32.6% from 88.888 billion RMB [1]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - CCB International maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi, adjusting the target price slightly from 75.25 RMB to 74.4 RMB, citing attractive valuation after a 16% pullback from recent highs [1]. - JPMorgan has a "Neutral" rating, with a target price of 60 RMB, noting that Xiaomi's stock has underperformed the benchmark index amid expectations of slowing profits in its core smartphone and IoT businesses [1]. Technical Analysis - Key support levels for Xiaomi are at 51.4 RMB and 48.7 RMB, while resistance levels are at 55.8 RMB and 57.7 RMB [2]. - A "death cross" is anticipated as the 10-day moving average approaches the 30-day moving average, indicating potential bearish sentiment [2]. Derivative Products and Trading Strategies - HSBC's call option (18005) offers a leverage of 7 times with a strike price of 60.65 RMB, suitable for short-term traders [5]. - UBS's call option (14816) provides a slightly lower leverage of 6.9 times, appealing to medium-term investors [5]. - For bearish investors, the Barclays put option (17868) offers a leverage of 4.8 times with a strike price of 54 RMB, presenting a favorable risk-reward ratio [5]. Market Insights - Recent performance of derivative products linked to Xiaomi has shown significant gains, with HSBC's call option rising by 18% and UBS's call option increasing by 36% in a volatile market [10]. - The upcoming earnings announcement raises questions about whether to position in derivatives beforehand or wait for the results [12].