布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司：降息预期急转弯 英国经济数据重写剧本

Group 1 - The latest report from the UK Office for National Statistics shows that the GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations of 0.1% [1] - In June, GDP growth accelerated to 0.4%, doubling previous forecasts, highlighting the economic resilience amid challenging conditions [1] - Consumer spending rebounded strongly, driven by the services sector, while manufacturing output also unexpectedly improved, providing a buffer against economic challenges [4] Group 2 - The unexpected economic resilience complicates monetary policy decisions, with inflation pressures easing on one hand and stronger-than-expected growth raising the threshold for policy adjustments on the other [8] - Market expectations for further interest rate cuts this year have diminished, with rate futures indicating borrowing costs may stabilize at 3.5% next year [8] - The UK labor market shows mixed signals, with job losses smaller than initially anticipated since last autumn's fiscal adjustments, supporting consumer spending but raising concerns for monetary policy shifts [8] Group 3 - Retail sector performance serves as a key indicator of economic health, with John Lewis reporting a 12% increase in home goods sales and a 9% rise in fashion sales, indicating a recovery in consumer spending [10] - However, the British Retail Consortium's survey revealed a significant drop in retail sales balance from +24 to -6 in July, the largest decline since last winter, suggesting that the recovery may not be stable [10] - As the third quarter begins, the UK faces a delicate turning point, with positive growth data tempered by underlying challenges that may not be immediately visible [10]