下周，全市场都盯着一个地方：杰克逊霍尔

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy, amidst significant political pressure and economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are widely expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is over 92%, with expectations for at least one more cut within the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Powell faces a complex economic situation, balancing rising inflation due to tariff policies against signs of a cooling labor market and risks of economic slowdown [1][3]. - Recent economic data shows persistent inflation pressures, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure - The Trump administration has intensified its criticism of Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, creating a challenging environment for the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. - Historical precedents of political interference in monetary policy, such as during the Nixon administration, highlight the potential risks of maintaining low rates in the face of rising inflation [3]. Group 4: Fed's Independence - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6][7]. - Adjustments to the policy framework may establish guiding principles that extend beyond Powell's tenure, addressing how to respond to supply shocks and balancing full employment with price stability [6].