邓正红能源软实力：油价下行压力加大 全球石油供需失衡加剧 石油巨头骤降利润

Group 1 - The global oil supply-demand imbalance is worsening, with geopolitical turmoil and policy conflicts making oil price forecasts uncertain [1][2] - OPEC's production increase and non-OPEC capacity release are undermining traditional pricing power, leading to a decline in oil giants' profits by an average of 25% [1][4] - The International Energy Agency has raised global oil supply growth forecasts while lowering demand growth, indicating persistent market imbalance risks [1][3] Group 2 - OPEC is attempting to balance regaining market share and avoiding significant price drops to protect profits, amid unpredictable U.S. trade policies and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Major oil companies have reported significant profit declines, with ExxonMobil down 15%, Chevron down 40%, Shell down 23%, and TotalEnergies down 32% [2][4] - The potential easing of sanctions on Russian oil could increase global supply and exert downward pressure on prices, while a slowdown in European demand is expected [2][3] Group 3 - The soft power dynamics behind supply-demand imbalances are characterized by a decline in policy effectiveness, with OPEC's daily production increase of 547,000 barrels countered by non-OPEC contributions [3][4] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with U.S. sanctions on Russia creating "institutional arbitrage," as India engages in trade that could affect Russian oil exports [3][4] - The introduction of new LNG capacities from the U.S. and Qatar is expected to further depress oil prices, particularly as European demand is projected to decline [4]