心智观察所：韩国的国家级风险：三星怎么在AI时代掉队了？

Core Viewpoint - Samsung is facing unprecedented challenges across its business segments, particularly in the semiconductor sector, leading to stagnating revenue growth and compressed profit margins [1][2]. Group 1: Business Challenges - Samsung's semiconductor division is experiencing a significant decline, with projected operating profit for Q2 2024 at 400 billion KRW, far below analyst expectations of 2.73 trillion KRW [1]. - The company's stock price has seen a substantial drop since peaking in 2021, underperforming against competitors like SK Hynix, which has benefited from the AI boom [1][2]. - Samsung's dominance in the DRAM market is being challenged, with SK Hynix surpassing Samsung's market share for the first time in 30 years in 2024 [10]. Group 2: Market Position and Competition - Samsung's semiconductor profits heavily rely on DRAM, which accounts for 50% to 70% of its semiconductor business [7]. - SK Hynix has positioned itself as a key supplier for NVIDIA, capturing approximately 20% of NVIDIA's semiconductor costs, while Samsung's share is only 1% [9]. - The rise of AI has shifted market demands, with high bandwidth memory (HBM) becoming crucial, a segment where Samsung failed to invest adequately compared to SK Hynix [8][9]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Samsung aims to re-enter NVIDIA's supply chain but faces challenges as its HBM products have not passed NVIDIA's stringent testing standards [13]. - The company is betting on the next generation of HBM (HBM4) and has garnered industry interest, although there is a significant time lag from order to revenue realization [14]. - Samsung is also expanding its foundry business, but it competes against TSMC, which holds about two-thirds of the global market share, while Samsung's foundry business only accounts for 8% [14]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Samsung's struggles are not just a corporate issue but pose a national risk, as it contributes approximately 20% to South Korea's total exports [4]. - The company's ability to navigate these challenges is critical for the overall health of the South Korean economy, as its core business issues could have broader economic repercussions [4].