Core Insights - China's holding of US Treasury bonds has decreased to $800 billion, only 60% of its peak, while the global payment share of the renminbi has only slightly increased to 2.5% [1] - Despite the expectation for China to lead the "de-dollarization" movement, it maintains a strategic balance by signing currency swap agreements with 39 countries while keeping over 50% of its foreign trade settled in US dollars [2] Group 1: Strategic Considerations - The US dollar serves as a protective shield for China, as its capital account is not fully open and its domestic financial market lacks depth, making a hasty challenge to the dollar potentially risky [2] - High-profile moves towards de-dollarization could provoke a united response from the US and Europe, as seen in the 2024 chip blockade against China, which reflects the ongoing struggle for monetary sovereignty [2] - China is waiting for technological breakthroughs, such as quantum computing and satellite internet, to enhance the capabilities of its digital currency [2] Group 2: Defensive Measures - China is building a monetary sovereignty defense line through a gold and resource anchoring system, with gold reserves projected to exceed 2,200 tons by 2025, and control over 60% of global rare earth and 45% of lithium production [5] - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) has been established to facilitate direct fund clearing, processing RMB transactions worth 120 trillion yuan in 2024, covering 180 countries [5] - A closed-loop settlement system is emerging in trade with Russia, where RMB transactions account for 65%, allowing trade without reliance on the dollar [5] Group 3: Long-term Vision - The timeline favors the renminbi, as the US dollar's dominance is supported by military, oil, and technology, but China's advancements in military and renewable energy could shift the balance by 2030 [7] - The US's monetary policies, including the expansion of its balance sheet and the freezing of foreign reserves, undermine the perceived safety of the dollar, prompting countries like the Philippines to consider local currency settlements [7] - China's initiatives to promote the use of Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and support regional currency settlements aim to dismantle the dollar-centric system, positioning the renminbi as a key player in a multipolar currency landscape [7]
美元霸权遇暗战 中国手握三张牌 引弓不发藏玄机
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-17 04:57