关税成本压力正加速向下游传导 美国中小企业可能出现倒闭潮

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. rose significantly in July, exceeding market expectations, indicating renewed inflationary pressures in the upstream supply chain [1][3] - Experts warn that the cost pressures from tariffs are accelerating down the supply chain, potentially leading to a wave of bankruptcies among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the U.S. [1][7] Group 1: PPI Data - The PPI increased by 0.9% month-over-month in July, marking the largest rise since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, significantly higher than June's 2.3% and the market expectation of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February of this year [3] Group 2: Tariff Impact - As of June, U.S. businesses bore 64% of the tariff costs, while consumers covered 22%. If tariffs continue to rise, consumers are expected to bear 67% of the costs by October [5] - Current tariff policies may lead to a 1% decline in U.S. GDP and an increase in inflation by 1% to 1.5% [5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The likelihood of the U.S. economy contracting for two consecutive quarters is estimated at 90% if current tariff policies remain unchanged, with a projected GDP decline of 4% [7] - SMEs are particularly vulnerable and may face a wave of bankruptcies if the economic downturn continues [7]