累报近万例，“基孔热”将如何发展？专访中疾控首席专家

Core Viewpoint - The largest outbreak of Chikungunya fever in recorded history has occurred in Guangdong, with a total of 9,933 reported cases as of August 16, 2023, raising concerns about the potential for the disease to become endemic in the region due to various factors including climate change and increased mosquito populations [1][5][12]. Summary by Sections Current Situation - As of mid-August, the Chikungunya outbreak in Guangdong has seen a decline in new cases, dropping from 408 on July 29 to 66 by August 15, indicating a potential downward trend in the epidemic [2][3]. Factors Influencing the Outbreak - The outbreak's severity is attributed to delayed detection, high mosquito density, and favorable climatic conditions for mosquito breeding, exacerbated by global warming [5][6][11]. - The presence of the Aedes albopictus mosquito, which is a primary vector for Chikungunya, is widespread in Guangdong, contributing to the outbreak's intensity [9][10]. Control Measures - Effective management of the outbreak requires rapid case identification, mosquito control, and public health education to prevent further spread [4][7]. - The control of mosquito populations through environmental management and chemical measures is crucial, especially in densely populated areas [3][4]. Risk of Spread - The risk of the outbreak spreading to neighboring regions, including Macau, is significant, particularly if the number of cases remains high [7][8]. - Areas with high population mobility and favorable climatic conditions, such as southern coastal provinces and economically active regions, are at increased risk for future outbreaks [8][9]. Long-term Implications - Climate change is expected to complicate the control of mosquito-borne diseases, potentially leading to more frequent outbreaks across broader geographic areas [12][13]. - There is a risk that Chikungunya and Dengue fever could transition from imported diseases to endemic conditions in regions with high mosquito populations and frequent human movement [13].