黄金走势推演与后市机会分析（2025.8.17）

Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with July CPI showing moderate inflation pressure, raising expectations for a Fed rate cut in September to as high as 95% probability, but the July PPI reported the largest increase in three years, dampening those expectations [2][3] - The recent meeting between Trump and Putin lasted 2.5 hours but did not result in a final agreement to end the conflict, with both leaders indicating progress but lacking concrete outcomes [2] Market Impact - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has been a key catalyst for the doubling of gold prices since late 2022, and any signs of a ceasefire could reduce gold's safe-haven demand, leading to significant price volatility in the short term [3] Upcoming Focus - The Federal Reserve will remain a focal point, with the July meeting minutes to be released and the annual global central bank meeting in Jackson Hole scheduled for August 21-23, where Fed Chair Powell's speech will be particularly significant [3] Technical Analysis - The gold market has shown a downward trend since reaching a high of 3500, currently undergoing a 4th wave adjustment phase, with the price fluctuating within a broad range [6] - The daily chart indicates that gold is in a 4th wave adjustment, with recent movements reflecting profit-taking and market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution [7] - On the hourly chart, gold is currently in the C-3 wave of a downward trend, with critical support levels to watch for potential further declines [11]