赵建：美国总统与美联储，一部恩怨情仇史

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Trump and the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts reflects deeper issues surrounding the independence of the Fed, which is crucial for the stability of the US dollar and the global financial system [1][2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is essential for maintaining the predictability of the dollar's value, which in turn supports global demand for dollar-denominated assets [5][17]. - A loss of independence could transform the dollar from a global "value anchor" into a domestic "political tool," undermining its credibility and accelerating the diversification of global reserve currencies [5][17]. Group 2: Historical Lessons - Historical examples illustrate the dangers of political pressure on the Fed, such as the 1971 Nixon administration's pressure leading to the "stagflation" period, where inflation peaked at 15% and unemployment exceeded 10% [6]. - The market's reaction to political threats against the Fed, such as Trump's threats to dismiss Powell, indicates a deep-seated fear of political interference, which can lead to significant market volatility [7]. Group 3: Background and Evolution of the Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve was established in 1913 as a response to the financial crises of the 19th century, with a design aimed at preventing political interference in monetary policy [9][10]. - Legal safeguards have been put in place to ensure the Fed's independence, including restrictions on presidential dismissals and the separation of fiscal and monetary policy [10][11][12][13]. Group 4: Political and Monetary Discipline - The historical conflicts between the Fed and US presidents often arise from differing time horizons, with presidents focused on short-term electoral cycles and the Fed prioritizing long-term economic stability [16]. - The current political climate, characterized by rising debt levels and the temptation for debt monetization, poses ongoing challenges to the Fed's independence [16][17].