Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) maintains a moderately accommodative monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing employment, economic growth, and promoting reasonable price recovery [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Direction - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a continued focus on accommodative monetary policy [2] - The central bank acknowledges external shocks and structural contradictions in domestic demand and supply, necessitating a moderately accommodative monetary policy to counter economic downturn pressures [2] - The expectation for the year includes one 50 basis points (BP) reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and a 20 BP interest rate reduction [2] Group 2: Financial Stability Measures - The PBOC reiterates the need to prevent fund diversion while balancing financial support for the real economy and maintaining financial health [3] - The current deleveraging process is expected to be relatively mild, utilizing gradual measures to guide financial institutions in reducing leverage without causing systemic risks [3] Group 3: Establishment of Financial Stability Committee - The establishment of the Macro-Prudential Financial Stability Committee aims to enhance the analysis of systemic financial risks and develop macro-prudential policies [4] - The committee will focus on improving real estate financial management, supporting stable capital market operations, and regulating bond market violations [4][5] Group 4: Focus on Inclusive Finance and Loan Growth - As of June, the balance of structural monetary policy tools supporting the "five major articles" is 3.8 trillion yuan, with inclusive finance being a significant component [7] - Loan growth rates for various sectors show that the pension industry leads with a 43.0% increase, followed by green loans at 25.5% and technology loans at 12.5% [8] Group 5: Support for Technological Innovation - The PBOC has enhanced financing channels for technological innovation, launching the "Science and Technology Innovation Board" for bond issuance [9] - The introduction of bond risk-sharing tools aims to support equity investment institutions in issuing innovation bonds, enhancing their capital strength [10] Group 6: Risk Monitoring and Financial Infrastructure - The PBOC is developing a comprehensive risk monitoring and assessment system to enhance the resilience of the financial system [13] - The establishment of an interbank transaction reporting database aims to improve financial market infrastructure and transparency [14]
浙商宏观：预计2025年货币政策维持宽松基调 年内央行还有一次50BP降准，以及20BP降息
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-17 10:00