特朗普要求被拒绝，中国将订单转交他国，美国 2200 万吨库存销不掉

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on soybean imports from China, highlighting a significant shift in China's sourcing from the U.S. to Brazil due to price competitiveness and trade policies [1][3][29]. Group 1: U.S.-China Soybean Trade Dynamics - Trump has urged China to increase soybean orders from the U.S. by four times, but recent reports indicate that China has sourced all its September and October soybean needs from Brazil and other South American countries, leaving U.S. suppliers empty-handed [3][5]. - The U.S. soybean import tariff to China has reached 23%, making U.S. soybeans significantly more expensive compared to Brazilian soybeans, which are approximately 200 yuan per ton cheaper [5][12]. - China's soybean imports from the U.S. have drastically decreased from 30 million tons in 2016 to an estimated 22.13 million tons in 2024, while imports from Brazil surged from 11.65 million tons to 74.65 million tons in the same period [7][25]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages of Brazilian Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are favored due to lower production costs and stable supply, enhanced by a currency swap agreement with China that allows transactions without using U.S. dollars [10][12]. - Brazil's soybean production exceeds 160 million tons annually, ensuring a reliable supply to meet China's demands, while U.S. soybean quality has declined, failing to meet the increasing demand for high-protein soybeans in China [10][12]. - The efficiency of Brazilian ports has improved significantly, with a 48% increase in the number of vessels unloading Brazilian soybeans at Ningbo-Zhoushan port compared to the previous year [12]. Group 3: Economic Impact on U.S. Farmers - The U.S. soybean export value to China is projected to drop by at least several billion dollars due to the current trade dynamics, with soybean prices falling from $13-$15 per bushel in 2023 to around $9 [14][20]. - The financial strain on U.S. farmers is evident, with many facing bankruptcy risks and significant losses in income, affecting local economies reliant on agricultural revenue [16][18]. - The increase in tariffs has led to a rise in costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further exacerbating the financial challenges faced by U.S. farmers [20][22]. Group 4: China's Strategic Shift in Soybean Sourcing - China is diversifying its soybean import sources to enhance food security, with projections indicating that by 2024, 71% of its soybean imports will come from Brazil, while only 21% will be from the U.S. [25][27]. - The Chinese government is also investing in domestic soybean production, aiming to increase output from 20.65 million tons in 2024 to 23 million tons by 2025 through various initiatives [25][27]. - The development of non-GMO soybean futures by the Dalian Commodity Exchange positions China as a global pricing center for non-GMO soybeans, reflecting a strategic move to gain control over its agricultural supply chain [27][29].