美银Hartnett：收益率曲线控制将至，黄金与加密货币成“防守利器”

Core Viewpoint - The market is undergoing a significant paradigm shift due to intertwined pressures of U.S. debt and anticipated policy changes, with a focus on currency devaluation as a core strategy to address debt challenges [1][3] Group 1: Policy and Economic Outlook - U.S. policymakers are expected to utilize currency devaluation and unconventional tools like Yield Curve Control (YCC) to manage debt and deficits, leading to a potential long-term bear market for the dollar [1][4] - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing has led to a peak in market anticipation for the Federal Reserve to join the "rate-cutting party," with 88 central banks having implemented rate cuts since 2025, marking the fastest easing pace since 2020 [1][3] Group 2: Investment Trends - Investors are increasingly avoiding long-term government bonds, opting instead for equities and credit markets, with the S&P 500's price-to-book ratio reaching a record 5.3 times, surpassing the peak during the tech bubble [9] - The average yield spread for U.S. investment-grade A+ credit is only 64 basis points, placing it in the 98th percentile over the past 30 years, indicating a strong preference for equities over bonds [11] Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - Hartnett suggests that investors should increase allocations to gold and cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential long-term dollar depreciation, with only 9% of fund managers currently holding cryptocurrency exposure [3][16] - The global fund manager survey indicates that only 48% of managers hold gold, with an average allocation of 2.2% of assets under management (AUM), suggesting significant room for growth in these asset classes [16] Group 4: Energy Market Insights - Hartnett presents a contrarian view on energy prices, suggesting that current oil and natural gas prices have already factored in expectations of peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a potential for further price declines until 2026 [18][20] - Collaboration between the U.S. and Russia on energy resources could lead to a deeper bear market in energy prices, despite potential short-term price rebounds due to related agreements [20]