扛不住了！美国大豆协会：没有一个市场能与中国对大豆的需求相提并论

Core Insights - The article highlights the unprecedented challenges faced by U.S. soybean farmers due to climate disasters, rising costs, and the impact of U.S. government tariff policies leading to a significant decline in international demand, particularly from China [1][2][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean is a crucial agricultural product, with China being its largest buyer, importing approximately 221.3 million tons from the U.S. in 2024, compared to less than 6 million tons from Mexico, the second-largest market [1] - Since the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration in 2017, China has significantly reduced its purchases of U.S. soybeans, resulting in a drastic drop in U.S. soybean exports, which fell to a 20-year low of only 3 million tons sold as of July 24 [1][2] Group 2: Supply Chain Challenges - Brazil has secured significant soybean supplies for September and October, totaling 800 million tons and 400 million tons respectively, which constitutes nearly half of China's expected demand for those months, further squeezing U.S. export opportunities [2] - The U.S. soybean market typically sees sales begin on October 1, but the current tariff situation has led to China not purchasing any U.S. soybeans this year, severely impacting U.S. farmers [2] Group 3: Agricultural Conditions - U.S. soybean and corn crops are suffering from adverse weather conditions, including excessive rainfall leading to pest infestations and crop diseases, which have delayed planting and reduced yield potential [4][5] - Farmers are incurring additional costs to manage these challenges, such as purchasing propane to dry corn, further straining their financial situation [5] Group 4: Economic Pressures - The prices of U.S. agricultural products have been declining over the past three years due to factors like reduced cattle herds and lower ethanol production, while costs for seeds, fertilizers, land, and machinery continue to rise [5] - The economic conditions for U.S. agriculture are reportedly more challenging than during the previous trade war period under the Trump administration [5] Group 5: Government Response - The Trump administration has proposed $60 billion in subsidies over the next decade to support farmers, but this has faced criticism for benefiting large producers over family farms and for not adequately addressing the immediate export challenges [7] - Despite calls for increased soybean purchases from China, market analysts question the feasibility of such transactions given China's established supply chain with Brazil [6][7]