金老虎：通胀压金价，降息悬九月，俄美会谈搅动避险风云

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices is primarily driven by unexpected inflation data and changing market expectations regarding interest rates, alongside shifts in risk appetite and geopolitical factors [3][5][6]. Group 1: Economic Data Impact - U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%, leading to concerns about persistent inflation [3]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, slightly below expectations, but core CPI remained steady at 3.0%, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures in essential sectors [3]. - The market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropped from 92% to 88% following the inflation data release [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - The Federal Reserve's decision to end the "new activity supervision program" on August 15 allowed banks to engage in cryptocurrency custody, leading to a surge in Bitcoin prices and a shift of funds from gold to more volatile assets [3][5]. - Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.87 tons to 961.35 tons, marking the lowest level since June 2025, as investors moved towards equities amid rising risk appetite [3][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Supply-Demand Factors - Geopolitical risk premiums have decreased as tensions in the Middle East remain but are already priced in, and a peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia has alleviated some regional risks [5]. - Central bank gold purchases have slowed, with global net purchases dropping by 32.6% in Q2 2025 compared to Q1, raising concerns about the long-term demand for gold [5]. - Industrial demand for gold has also weakened seasonally, with a 15% decrease in procurement from sectors like electronics and jewelry, and China's gold imports hitting a record low of 42 tons in July [5]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - The gold price is currently trading within a triangular range, with key support at 3280 and resistance at 3425, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - If gold breaks below the 20-day moving average at 3310, it may accelerate its decline towards the 3280 support level [6]. - The upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank meeting on August 22 is expected to be a critical event for market direction, particularly if the Fed signals a "higher for longer" stance on interest rates [5].