下周，全市场都盯着这个地方

Group 1 - The focus of global investors is on the Jackson Hole conference, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech will provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy [1] - Market expectations indicate a high probability (over 92%) of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [4] - The housing sector has seen significant stock price increases, with leading builders like PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton rising between 4.2% and 8.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 1% increase [4] Group 2 - Political pressure from the Trump administration is complicating Powell's decision-making, as the administration has criticized him for not cutting rates quickly enough [5] - Historical precedents show that political interference in Fed decisions can lead to disastrous outcomes, as seen in the 1970s with President Nixon's influence [5] - Current economic data presents a mixed picture, with inflation pressures remaining stubborn, as evidenced by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in the core CPI and a 0.9% rise in the PPI, the largest monthly increase in over three years [6] Group 3 - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the Fed's long-term independence [7] - Adjustments to the policy framework may include a shift in terminology regarding employment conditions, allowing for more flexibility in rate adjustments based on economic conditions [8] - The speech will not conclude the ongoing debate but will illustrate Powell's balancing act between economic management, political hostility, and decision-making framework enhancement [8]