港股周观点 | 预期验证期不改港股中枢上移趋势

Group 1 - The market is currently in a critical verification phase, with expectations for interest rate cuts in the US due to moderate inflation, leading to a rebound in market sentiment after previous recession concerns [1] - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a rapid rise, driven by strong earnings reports from major companies and supportive domestic policies, particularly in consumer lending [1] - The market is experiencing increased volatility, with a lack of clear trading themes and significant events pending verification, indicating a potential window for portfolio adjustments [1] Group 2 - As of August 15, 2025, 132 earnings forecasts were released for major overseas Chinese stocks, with a positive forecast rate of 58%, particularly high in utilities (100%), finance (89%), and healthcare (74%) sectors [2] - The overall profit recovery for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 13%, compared to 8% in 2024, with significant industry differentiation [2] - The recovery in profits is supported by improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market and stronger domestic policies compared to the previous year, with fiscal spending increasing by 8.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [2] Group 3 - Short-term liquidity pressures exist in the market, but the medium-term outlook remains positive, with expectations for a net issuance of $1 trillion in US Treasury bonds in Q3 2025 [3] - The anticipated increase in bond issuance may exert upward pressure on 10-year Treasury yields, with a 92.1% probability of a rate cut in September [3] - The upcoming Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for discussions on monetary policy, which could impact market liquidity [3] Group 4 - Hong Kong's liquidity remains relatively ample, with significant inflows from southbound capital, which accounted for over 40% of trading in Hong Kong stocks [4] - The Hong Kong dollar has appreciated significantly, and the liquidity conditions are expected to remain relatively loose, despite potential adjustments in interest rates [4] - The market is currently experiencing a carry trade reversal, influenced by rising expectations for US interest rate cuts [4]