关注下半年外需扰动风险

Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with external demand contributing significantly to this growth [1] - However, in the second quarter, GDP growth slowed to 5.2%, with external demand and consumption both declining [1] Trade Dynamics - China's exports to the US fell by 10.7% in the first half of the year, while overall exports increased by 5.9% [1][2] - The US also saw a significant drop in exports to China, with a 21.2% decrease in the first half [2][3] - Despite a reduction in tariffs announced in May, bilateral trade did not show significant improvement [2] Tariff Impact - Over half of the goods exported from China to the US experienced a decline in growth due to tariffs, with 53.5% of product categories underperforming [4] - The US has implemented high tariffs on various countries, affecting trade dynamics and potentially leading to a reduction in imports [8][11] Future Outlook - The IMF and WTO have adjusted their global trade growth forecasts downward, indicating potential negative impacts from tariff changes [6][8] - China's trade surplus may be affected by the US's narrowing trade deficit, which could limit China's export growth [10][12] Domestic Consumption - The Chinese government is focusing on boosting domestic demand to counteract external pressures, emphasizing the need to release internal consumption potential [12][13]