IPP全球智库纵览｜特朗普的“大而美法案”对拉丁美洲意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - The "Big Beautiful Bill" proposed by Trump is set to reshape the economic, energy, and immigration policy landscape between the U.S. and Latin America, with significant implications for regional stability and U.S. relations with its long-term allies in the hemisphere [2][4]. Immigration Enforcement - The new legislation allocates $170 billion for immigration and border-related actions, including nearly $47 billion for border wall construction and funding for thousands of new immigration enforcement personnel and detention facilities [5]. - The bill aims to terminate the legal status of over one million individuals, significantly increasing the number of people eligible for deportation, which will place additional pressure on Central American countries to manage the return of their citizens [7]. Energy Policy and Key Minerals - The bill reverses tax incentives for clean energy technologies, contrasting sharply with the Biden administration's climate policies, which may hinder U.S. clean energy production and provide an opportunity for China to expand its influence in renewable energy sectors in Latin America [8]. - The cancellation of tax credits for critical minerals supply chains could impact global efforts to transition to renewable energy, while other regions continue to pursue energy transformation [8]. Remittance Taxation - The legislation imposes a federal tax on remittances, which could drive funds from formal channels to informal ones, negatively affecting the economies of Latin American countries reliant on remittances [11]. - The tax rate is set at 1%, lower than the initially proposed 5%, but could still lead to a decrease in remittance flows through formal channels due to tax avoidance strategies [11]. Economic Implications - The bill is projected to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion, potentially exacerbating the already fragile macroeconomic situation in the U.S. and negatively impacting regional economies in Latin America [15]. - The combination of reduced foreign aid, remittance taxation, and expanded immigration enforcement may lead to a long-term decoupling of Latin American economies from the U.S. if regional integration efforts are not strengthened [15].