双碳研究 | 国际可再生能源署报告：可再生能源已成最廉价电力来源！

Core Viewpoint - The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) reports that renewable energy has become the cheapest source of electricity globally, with a record growth expected in 2024, avoiding $467 billion in fossil fuel usage [1][6]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Growth - In 2024, global renewable energy capacity is projected to increase by 582 GW, marking a 19.8% rise from 2023, the highest annual growth rate in history [4]. - The surge in capacity is primarily driven by the rapid expansion of solar and onshore wind energy, supported by mature supply chains and strong policy frameworks [4][6]. Group 2: Economic Competitiveness - Renewable energy is not only crucial for environmental protection but also economically superior to fossil fuels, as evidenced by technological advancements and competitive supply chains [3][6]. - In 2024, 91% of newly commissioned utility-scale capacity has a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) lower than the cheapest new fossil fuel alternatives [7]. Group 3: Cost Trends - The LCOE for new utility-scale onshore wind projects is the lowest among renewable sources at $0.034 per kWh, followed by solar PV at $0.043 per kWh and hydropower at $0.057 per kWh [7]. - From 2010 to 2024, the total installation costs for solar PV have decreased to $691 per kW, onshore wind to $1,041 per kW, and offshore wind to $2,852 per kW [8]. Group 4: Regional Cost Competitiveness - In the onshore wind sector, China ($0.029 per kWh) and Brazil ($0.030 per kWh) have LCOEs below the global average [12]. - In the solar PV sector, China ($0.033 per kWh) and India ($0.038 per kWh) also have costs below the average [13]. - Average offshore wind prices in Asia are $0.078 per kWh, slightly lower than Europe’s $0.080 per kWh [14]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2029, global installation costs for solar PV are expected to drop to $388 per kW, onshore wind to $861 per kW, and offshore wind to $2,316 per kW [15]. - The report indicates that technological maturity and strengthened supply chains will drive long-term cost reductions, although geopolitical risks and supply chain bottlenecks may lead to short-term cost increases [16].