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今明两年不买房,5年后是更买不起还是随便挑?这次有答案了
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-17 21:46

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant divergence, with opportunities and challenges coexisting, leading to a complex landscape rather than a simple "rise" or "fall" scenario [1] Market Trends - Goldman Sachs predicts a 10% decline in housing prices from the 2021 peak by 2027, while domestic institutions like CICC and CITIC believe first-tier cities will stabilize by the end of 2025 [1] - The population of the primary home-buying demographic (ages 25-39) is expected to decrease by 42 million by 2027, which will impact housing demand [1] City Divergence - The real estate market is characterized by stark contrasts, with significant increases in viewing and transaction volumes in areas like Beijing's fifth ring after policy relaxations, while other regions like Huizhou see little interest even with drastic price reductions [3] - National inventory data shows 680 million square meters of unsold properties, with 70% concentrated in third- and fourth-tier cities, indicating a prolonged de-stocking period [3] Value Opportunities - Three types of properties are emerging as valuable: - Old residential areas undergoing urban renewal, with potential price increases of over 15% post-renovation [4] - Properties near transportation hubs, which can see value increases of around 10% [4] - Residential areas near emerging industrial parks, driven by high-income job growth [4] Key Window Period - The second half of 2025 to early 2026 is identified as a critical window for potential homebuyers, with developers likely to offer significant discounts and increased availability of second-hand homes [5] - Policy incentives, such as low mortgage rates, are expected to peak during this period, particularly in first-tier cities [5] Purchase Recommendations - For first-time buyers in first-tier and strong second-tier cities, it is advisable to start house hunting in late 2025, focusing on newer properties along metro lines [6] - Owners of multiple properties in third- and fourth-tier cities should consider selling older homes and relocating to stronger second-tier areas [6] - For those looking to upgrade, waiting until around 2027 may yield better options and pricing [8] - Investors should carefully assess holding costs, as the financial attributes of ordinary residential properties are diminishing [8] Future Outlook - In core first-tier areas, failing to purchase within the next two years may result in significantly higher prices in five years, while in third- and fourth-tier areas, there may be ample options available due to price declines and inventory issues [10] - The future real estate market will focus on quality and value rather than mere price fluctuations [10]