美国扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，对黑色商品影响几何？

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to include hundreds of derivative products, with a 50% tariff set to take effect on August 18, 2023 [1]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced the addition of 407 product codes to the U.S. Harmonized Tariff Schedule, which will incur additional tariffs due to their steel and aluminum content [1]. - The expanded tariff list primarily includes intermediate and semi-finished products containing steel and aluminum, as well as metal structures, containers, and fasteners made from these materials [1]. Group 2: Impact on Exports - In 2024, China's steel export volume is projected to be 111 million tons, with only 470,000 tons directly exported to the U.S., accounting for 0.4% of total exports [2]. - The direct impact of the tariff policy on China's steel exports is expected to be minimal, but indirect exports may be affected due to a high proportion of steel being routed through third countries [2]. - China's steel exports to Vietnam, a significant intermediary for U.S. exports, are projected to be 12.76 million tons in 2024, with Vietnam exporting nearly 2 million tons to the U.S. [2]. Group 3: Industry Implications - The tariff policy may lead to a decline in China's steel exports, negatively impacting related products such as steel billets and plates [3]. - The policy could also significantly affect the export of steel-intensive products like construction machinery, home appliances, and new energy vehicles, which have a high demand for steel, particularly plates [3]. - An estimated 14.5 million tons of steel may be indirectly exported to the U.S. through steel derivatives in 2024 [3]. Group 4: Market Reactions - The futures market is expected to react negatively to the tariff policy, with a potential decline in steel prices due to increased inventory levels and weakening demand [4]. - The price spread between different steel products has widened, indicating market volatility, and the tariff policy is likely to have a more direct impact on plate exports [4]. - Despite the tariff policy, the domestic futures market is primarily influenced by macroeconomic and industrial policies, which may help mitigate the impact of the tariffs [4][5].