招商宏观：关注市场资金价格与汇率

Domestic Aspects - Economic data for August shows low operating rates for midstream products, indicating continued effects of anti-involution policies, while upstream operating rates are stronger than last year, suggesting a rebound in infrastructure investment [1][3] - The week of August 10 saw a significant rebound in container and cargo throughput, exceeding historical levels, indicating continued support for exports [3][7] - The central bank's liquidity tightening intentions may be indicated if the DR007 rate rises above 1.5%, aligning with previous statements about addressing the misalignment of monetary policies between China and the US [1][3][7] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate, potentially returning to the 6 range, which would enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [1][3][7] Overseas Aspects - The US July PPI data may lead the Federal Reserve to lock in a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with the Jackson Hole meeting being a key observation window [4][8] - High PPI and weak CPI suggest that US businesses are absorbing most of the tariff costs, indicating a delayed transmission of inflation to consumer prices [4][8] - The US tariff policies are aimed at boosting domestic investment, with potential new legislation from Trump to enhance election prospects before the midterm elections [4][8] - A meeting between Trump and Putin on August 15 resulted in positive statements, possibly driven by political performance pressures [4][8] Monetary Liquidity Tracking - The overall liquidity remains loose, with a slight increase in benchmark rates and positive net financing for government bonds [5][13] - The average weekly DR001 and DR007 rates have increased, indicating a tightening in the money market [14] - Government bond issuance is set to rise significantly next week, reflecting a decrease in pressure on government debt [15] Major Asset Performance - The A-share market saw a significant increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing below 3700 [22] - The US stock market indices showed upward trends, while the bond market experienced adjustments [27] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have declined, while the RMB exchange rate remained stable against the dollar [27]