消费旺季和国外装置限气停车风险仍在 甲醇2601合约或可择机做多

Group 1 - The overall trading atmosphere in the spot market has weakened, with traders adopting aggressive pricing strategies to promote sales while downstream buyers are inclined to press for lower prices, leading to a weak performance of methanol futures contracts [1] - Domestic methanol supply is expected to steadily increase as maintenance peaks have passed, with production profits from coal-based methanol remaining high at around 350 RMB/ton, despite rising production capacity utilization rates indicating potential bottlenecks [2] - The economic viability of natural gas-based methanol projects has weakened significantly due to high industrial gas prices, with several projects currently suspended and uncertain restart timelines [2] Group 2 - Iranian methanol supply remains high, with several production facilities operating normally, while non-Iranian supplies are also expected to remain elevated due to limited international demand [3] - The traditional downstream processing sector is facing challenges, with many products, including formaldehyde and MTBE, operating below breakeven profit levels, leading to reduced purchasing activity from downstream enterprises [4] - Recent price rebounds in methanol have led to a decline in production profits for MTO facilities, with several undergoing maintenance or operating below capacity, indicating a potential decrease in overall industry activity [5] Group 3 - The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" demand season is under scrutiny, with expectations of limited demand growth due to high raw material inventories and ongoing losses in downstream sectors [4][5] - The market outlook for methanol futures contracts is expected to remain weak, with potential opportunities for low-risk positions in future contracts once current bearish pressures are alleviated [6]