本周，鲍威尔会变吗？

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market indices closed mixed last Friday, with all three major indices recording a second consecutive weekly gain. The Nasdaq rose by 0.81%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.94%, and the Dow Jones gained 1.74%. Notably, both the Dow and S&P 500 reached all-time highs during the trading session [1]. Federal Reserve Insights - The global capital markets are anticipating a significant event led by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will speak at the annual central bank meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 21 to 23. This meeting has historically been used by the Fed to signal major policy shifts [1][3]. - The market is largely expecting the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts in September. However, Morgan Stanley warns that Powell's primary task will be to dispel the notion of an inevitable rate cut, thereby regaining policy control for the Fed. Investors should prepare for potential market volatility due to "expectation differences" [1][3]. Interest Rate Projections - Financial markets are almost certain that the Federal Reserve will lower the benchmark federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, from a range of 4.25%-4.50% to 4.00%-4.25%. However, there remains uncertainty regarding the future path of rate cuts, with a 51.5% probability for another 25 basis point cut in October and a 38.8% chance for a third cut in December [4]. Cryptocurrency Market Developments - Cryptocurrency exchange Gemini has publicly filed for an IPO with the SEC, aiming to list on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol GEMI. The fundraising size and price range have not yet been disclosed. If successful, Gemini would become the third cryptocurrency exchange to go public in the U.S., following Coinbase and Bullish [7][9]. - Gemini, founded in 2014 by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, is one of the larger crypto trading platforms in the U.S., with approximately $18 billion in assets under custody and a historical trading volume of about $285 billion [9]. - The company reported projected revenues of $142.165 million for 2024, with approximately 70% derived from trading fees, while also facing a net loss of $158.5 million [10][12].