Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-18 01:08Core Insights - Morgan Stanley warns that the competition in China's food delivery market is more intense than expected, leading to differentiated fates for the three major players: JD.com, Alibaba, and Meituan [1][6] Group 1: Financial Performance - JD.com's second-quarter losses in food delivery investments reached 13 billion yuan, exceeding Morgan Stanley's initial forecast of 10 billion yuan by 30% [3] - Alibaba's projected losses for the third quarter are now expected to exceed 30 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous estimate of 17 billion yuan [4][5] - The financial impact of food delivery investments for the second to fourth quarters of 2025 is projected as follows: - JD.com: (13.5 billion), (14.4 billion), (9.45 billion) - Alibaba: (5.595 billion), (16.869 billion), (16.074 billion) - Meituan: (2.669 billion), (5.695 billion), (3.664 billion) [5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - JD.com may be the first to withdraw from the price war due to financial pressures, while Alibaba is likely to continue investing in food delivery for strategic reasons [1][6] - Meituan, as the industry leader, faces the most severe long-term challenges due to changing market dynamics [1][8] - The competitive landscape is expected to fundamentally change, with Alibaba potentially continuing to invest in food delivery and exploring flash purchase opportunities [8] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Share - The long-term investments in the industry may alter consumer behavior, potentially lowering the average order value and GMV, which could negatively impact the overall profit pool of the industry [8] - Meituan's market share and profitability are at risk if the industry's profit pool declines, leading to sustained pressure on its stock price [8]