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美联储主席鲍威尔本周将在杰克逊霍尔讲话,债券市场降息押注迎来关键时刻
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-18 01:24

Core Viewpoint - Bond traders are heavily betting on an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a critical moment approaching as Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to comment on the economy this week [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve's annual meeting in Jackson Hole is anticipated to be crucial for the U.S. Treasury market, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut next month and at least one more cut by the end of the year [3]. - Traders believe that a weak labor market opens the door for a more dovish tone from Powell, despite some economists hesitating due to unexpectedly strong inflation data [3]. - Investors expect Powell to avoid disrupting the rate cut bets while indicating that the September 17 policy decision will depend on data reports confirming a cooling labor market and controlled inflation [3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Reactions - Powell's past statements at the Jackson Hole symposium have significantly influenced market expectations, including a warning about the pain of fighting inflation three years ago and a hint at lowering borrowing costs last year [4]. - Some traders are anticipating a repeat of last year's scenario, with large-scale options trading betting on a 50 basis point rate cut next month, despite rising producer price index [4]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Economic Indicators - Increasing calls from President Donald Trump and other officials for lower borrowing costs are fueling rate cut bets, although Powell has maintained a cautious stance, needing time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation [5]. - The Fed is under significant pressure, with some analysts suggesting that the current data supports the case for resuming the rate cut cycle [5].