国开债券ETF(159651)交投活跃，机构称若降息预期升温，长债或迎来阶段性反弹

Group 1 - The trading activity of 30-year Treasury futures has significantly declined due to dual impacts of capital migration and supply pressure, with a notable drop in trading volume since mid-July as stock markets and commodities see increased activity and risk appetite rises [1] - Analysts suggest that if stock market sentiment cools or expectations for interest rate cuts increase, long-term bonds may experience a temporary rebound, although the overall bond market is likely to remain in a volatile state due to rising local government bond supply and weak institutional buying [1] - Short-term interest rate trends indicate two possible scenarios: either rates will fluctuate weakly at high levels with opportunities for slight rebounds, or rates will continue to rise but quickly retreat [1] Group 2 - As of August 15, 2025, the National Development Bank Bond ETF (159651) has seen a slight increase of 0.02%, with a latest price of 106.33 yuan, and a cumulative increase of 1.75% over the past year [1] - The National Development Bank Bond ETF has a turnover rate of 4.67% during trading, with a transaction volume of 26.5156 million yuan, and an average daily transaction volume of 5.23 billion yuan over the past year [2] - The ETF has shown a net value increase of 0.61% over the past six months, with a historical performance of 100% profitability over two years and a maximum drawdown of 0.21% in the last six months, which is the lowest among comparable funds [2]