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供给端担忧情绪缓和,油价延续震荡下行,谨防向下加速
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-18 02:23

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices are experiencing a moderate decline, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and U.S. policy shifts regarding sanctions on oil imports from Russia [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Movements - Brent crude futures fell by 0.39% to $65.59 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude decreased by 0.19% to $61.86 per barrel [1]. - The primary uncertainty in the oil market stems from potential changes in U.S. policy, particularly regarding sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil [3]. Group 2: U.S. Policy and Market Reactions - President Trump’s recent meeting with President Putin indicated a more unified stance on promoting peace negotiations, alleviating some market fears about immediate sanctions on Asian countries [3]. - Trump stated that there would be no immediate punitive tariffs on Asian nations, but a reassessment could occur in the next two to three weeks, which could lead to increased volatility in the global energy market [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Influence - Investors are awaiting comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting to gauge future monetary policy directions, with expectations that the Fed will remain cautious ahead of the September 17 FOMC meeting [3][4]. - The market anticipates that Powell may rely on upcoming employment and inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, which could further impact oil prices [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Current downward pressure on oil prices is attributed more to a temporary easing of geopolitical uncertainties rather than significant changes in supply and demand dynamics [6]. - The potential for a rapid rebound in oil prices exists if the U.S. reconsiders secondary sanctions, indicating that geopolitical developments and Federal Reserve signals will continue to be critical factors influencing the energy market [6].