7月经济数据解读丨新动能澎湃 7月经济稳中有进显韧性

Economic Overview - In July, China's economy demonstrated a steady and progressive development trend, with continuous growth in production and demand, stable employment and prices, and significant advancements in new productive forces, contributing to high-quality development [2][3] Industrial Performance - Industrial production showed a steady upward trend, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 5.7% year-on-year in July and 6.3% cumulatively from January to July, surpassing the average of the past five years by 0.42 percentage points [3][4] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing emerged as the main growth engines, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and 8.4%, respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth rate [3][4] - New productive forces are being cultivated, with significant increases in the production of smart drones (80.8%), new energy vehicles (17.1%), and integrated circuits (26.9%) [3][4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 3.88 trillion yuan in July, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, while the cumulative total for January to July reached 28.42 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% [5][6] - Service consumption showed strong momentum, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in service retail sales from January to July, driven by summer tourism [5][6] - Upgraded products saw significant sales growth, with office supplies increasing by 13.8%, home appliances by 28.7%, and furniture by 20.6% [5][6] Foreign Trade Resilience - In July, China's total goods import and export value increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8% and imports by 4.8%, indicating strong external demand resilience [7][8] - From January to July, the total value of goods trade reached 25.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [7][8] - The resilience in foreign trade is attributed to the deepening economic cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road, stable policies from the US-China tariff truce, and the growth of high-value-added product exports [7][8] Policy Outlook - The macroeconomic policies are expected to further strengthen in the second half of the year, with high-tech manufacturing and green industries projected to maintain growth rates around 10% [9][10] - Continued support for consumption through policies like trade-in programs and financial assistance for the service sector is anticipated [9][10] - Infrastructure investment is expected to rebound with the gradual allocation of special bonds and the introduction of new policy financial tools [9][10]