中国停止进口美国大豆？特朗普要求被拒绝，中国将订单转交他国，“大赢家”已浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of Trump's call for China to increase soybean orders, highlighting China's shift in sourcing from the U.S. to South American countries like Brazil and Argentina, resulting in a significant decline in U.S. soybean exports to China [1][3][8]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Market Dynamics - U.S. soybean farmers are facing a surplus of 22 million tons, leading to concerns about unsold inventory and the overall health of the U.S. soybean industry [1][5]. - The U.S. agricultural trade deficit reached a record high in the first half of the year, indicating growing economic pressure on U.S. farmers [5]. - The American Soybean Association's prediction of a 65% reduction in soybean exports to China due to tariffs has proven to be conservative, as the market share lost may never be regained [7]. Group 2: China's Strategic Sourcing - China has diversified its soybean imports, with Brazil becoming the largest supplier, and imports from Argentina increasing by 110% year-on-year, making it the third-largest supplier [3][8]. - The price of Brazilian soybeans is 10%-15% lower than U.S. soybeans, and the transportation time is shorter, making it a more attractive option for China [3]. - China's domestic soybean production has improved, and its reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased, showcasing a more resilient supply chain [5][8]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's push for increased soybean orders is seen as an attempt to secure votes from agricultural states ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, as declining exports threaten Republican support [3][8]. - The article suggests that Trump's trade war inadvertently strengthened China's soybean industry and diversified its supply sources, altering the global soybean trade landscape [8].