华创策略：A股5轮牛市的回撤经验，流动性收紧是历轮牛市回撤的主要促发因素

Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes historical market pullbacks during bull markets and identifies potential risk factors for the current market, emphasizing that while a pullback is not imminent, preparation is necessary for possible future risks [1][8]. Group 1: Historical Pullback Experiences - Liquidity tightening is the primary trigger for pullbacks in past bull markets, with macro liquidity tightening having a more profound impact on valuation and inflation levels [2][9]. - Micro liquidity tightening leads to more controllable pullbacks, often presenting opportunities for positioning [10]. - The report categorizes pullback causes into five main types: macro liquidity tightening, micro liquidity tightening, policy tightening, geopolitical events, and fundamental downturns, with macro liquidity tightening being the most frequent cause [9][11]. Group 2: Potential Future Pullback Triggers - Key macro liquidity factors to monitor include whether the current easing will meet expectations, particularly in light of anticipated U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts [30]. - On the micro liquidity side, attention should be paid to margin account inspections, quantitative trading regulations, IPO lock-up releases, and significant ETF outflows [31]. - Geopolitical events, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-China trade negotiations, are critical areas for monitoring [32]. Group 3: Reiteration of Re-inflation Bull Market View - The current bull market is characterized by financial re-inflation, with the stock market serving as a vehicle for excess liquidity as cash product yields decline [39]. - The transition to the second half of the bull market is expected to focus on real asset re-inflation, with M1 leading PPI by 6-9 months [49]. - The report emphasizes the importance of fund recovery and reallocation effects, suggesting that as funds recover, redemption pressures may increase, but this does not necessarily indicate a long-term negative outlook [52].