特朗普被中国无视？巴西拿下中国大豆订单，美国至少要亏几十个亿

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean exporters are likely to face significant challenges this year as Chinese companies have largely turned to Brazil for their soybean purchases, potentially resulting in the U.S. missing out on billions in sales opportunities [1][10]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - Chinese importers have secured approximately 8 million tons of soybeans for September, all sourced from South America, primarily Brazil [3]. - By October, Chinese buyers are expected to have contracted around 4 million tons from South America, accounting for half of their monthly demand [3]. - The ongoing stalemate in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with tariffs still in place, is a critical factor preventing U.S. soybeans from entering the Chinese market during the crucial sales period from September to January [3][5]. Group 2: Tariff Impact - The current tariff on U.S. soybeans is 23%, which significantly diminishes their competitiveness in the Chinese market [5]. - Last year, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with 22.13 million tons coming from the U.S., valued at around $12 billion [5]. - Without a reduction in tariffs, U.S. soybeans will struggle to compete on price, despite being cheaper by about $40 per ton than Brazilian soybeans before tariffs are applied [6]. Group 3: Market Shifts - If a tariff agreement is reached by November, there may be a chance for China to resume U.S. soybean purchases, extending the export window for the U.S. [8]. - However, if no agreement is made, U.S. soybean farmers may face severe losses, as Chinese companies have recently built up substantial inventories, reducing immediate demand for U.S. soybeans [8][10]. - The prolonged trade negotiations signal a shift in the competitive landscape, with Brazil increasingly becoming the primary supplier of soybeans to China, diminishing the U.S.'s market share [10].